While I couldn't tell if the late Legate Ghemor was supposed to have brown eyes or not I went with it anyway.
Tekeny Ghemor is one of my favorite Cardassians on Deep Space Nine--a kind, honorable man who in a lot of ways embodies what I believe the Cardassians could be if they could only break out of the destructive patterns they've allowed themselves to be caught in.
Sadly, he died way before his time, but here's a colored-pencil portrait to remember him by.
But you know, although I’ve always sympathised with Ghemor, there is a huge part of me that thinks that firstly, Cardassians wouldn’t generally accept the changes advocated by him and secondly, that if they actually did, they would lose to much of their identity.
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But are some Cardassians going to fight change fiercely? Oh, yes, I would fully expect that. After all, when you give people almost unlimited power over others, they get addicted to it and they will do damned near anything to hold on to it when it slips away. And clearly there has been much damage done by generations of propaganda, and breaking that will not be easy. Any reforms on Cardassia will bring bloodshed, I am sure.
As you probably know, after the Dominion war, at least according to A Stitch in Time, the followers of Ghemor tried to take over, but at least in my opinion, they wouldn't rule for long. In my view, sooner or later, the military or an organisation similar to the Obsidian Order would make them step down and nobody would protest as Cardassians got accustomed to being controlled by other Cardassians and didn't get accustomed to killing their people in a civil war or creating a resistance (other than the one against the Dominion, but that was another case). And I do not say that it’d good or bad. It just would be very Cardassian of them. At least new-Cardassian .
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I guess I have a hard time believing people don't have an innate need to be free, or at least to be free of brutalization and oppression in their lives. I imagine Cardassia as an ordered society, no matter what--not a permissive one like some places we could think of on Earth that are very permissive. But, I don't think torture or repression are necessary to have an orderly or safe society. I also think that once you give people a taste of life without those things, they'll never quite be the same.
As a "historical" note, there were actually three revolutions in a short span of time, that the Cardassians had: the uprising that restored the Detapa Council to power, followed by Dukat's coup, followed by the rebellion against the Dominion and its Cardassian puppets. That's a pretty extraordinary chain of events, and for that reason I think this is a rare moment where the future is fairly open for them.
As for the first two coups you've mentioned, they were bloodless and involved only the highest authorities. The rebellion against the Dominion might have not even started if wasn't for Damar (a former leader, not the man in the street). The average citizen on Cardassia seems not to be very brave nor eager to fight. Maybe that’s because of their true nature – generally they are peaceful and don’t want to fight unless they’re told to or forced by their leaders (who became leaders because they were different from the rest of the society). Besides you probably remember how reluctant the Damar’s resistance was when it came to killing other Cardassians, even if they were collaborators.
What’s more I have an impression that average Cardassians are somewhat like children. They don’t want to chose their parents – they want to have them and feel their authority (and yeah, I do realise how the Central Command and the Obsidian Order sucked at parenting : P). You’ve said that you have a hard time believing that people may not have this innate need to be free. I don’t. I now lots of people - mainly Poles (and note that Poles have always been proud of being valiant) and Russians, but also people from the Balkan countries, who were completely happy with socialism. The regime was responsible for tortures and invigilation, but those who were quite, lived their lives peacefully. Those who cooperated had good jobs, could afford luxurious goods from the West and even travel around the world. They were (and still are) millions of people like that.
And that is why I think that Cardassians wouldn’t adopt the idea of elections and that they would be happy as long as they had the feeling of law and order. After the war there was no order whatsoever, everybody lost their loved ones and friends, not even mentioning their property. That’s why it could be a good moment for changes, but still I’m not really sure whether there would be any.
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And I especially have a problem with treating grown people as children, sheep, or Borg drones. People do like peace in their lives, but I don't think we can cross into saying what amounts to their liking to be abused. I do think it takes a lot to push Cardassians to turn against their leadership--more than it probably would with humans--but I think on the show we saw that they have a breaking point and it can be done. That moment where there can be change will be a limited opportunity, I believe...I think that once Cardassian society comes back into some form of order, whatever that form is, it will in a way "freeze" again and changing that new order will be very hard. But I do think there's going to be a window that could be anywhere from a few years to as much as a few decades, where change on Cardassia is going to be possible.
One thing I do think is that their system is not going to be a copy of the Federation, and that's where I think Treklit went wrong, and where I think some fanfic writers go wrong. I have an AU where Hebitian culture continued in a reformed way, instead of Tret Akleen's revolution occurring, and while some officials are elected, there is also a portion of the government that is theocratic. If I continue past the Dominion War in my canon-universe stories, I intend to make sure not to give Cardassia a carbon copy of the Federation, US, or UK governments. I don't think that would make sense. But I do not believe a return to brutality or oppression is encoded into Cardassian genetics anywhere, or that they are not adults.
I’ve never said that brutality is encoded into Cardassian genetics. But Cardassians are very proud and got used to power. What is worse, their system have never been autarkic, so they needed others to function. They could ask for help and cooperate or they could dominate and bully and they chose the second option.
After the war they had the same choice, but… imagine a situation in which a bully approaches his victim and says: ‘Hi, somebody hurt me a lot and I don’t feel like bullying you anymore. Besides, now I need your help – food, clothes and some other stuff. And in exchange, I’m going to protect you. Not now though – more like in a couple of years, because now I’m so devastated that I won’t be able to’. What the victim would do? Probably show the middle finger and laugh from time to time for the rest of the day. And wouldn’t the bully now what would happen? Of course he would. That’s why he’d approach his victim and say “Give me your lunch and shirt. Why? Because!” instead. And the victim probably wouldn’t even notice that the bully is bruised and is walking with a pair of crutches.
And that’s the reason why I not only think that Cardassians wouldn’t make a copy of Federation-like government, but also that they wouldn’t establish any democratic government that would cooperate with previously conquered or dominated worlds.
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Do the Cardassians have a lot of obstacles ahead? Oh, yes. But I am never going to believe that they're a lost cause because in history we have seen "lost causes" change.
People's tendency is to revert to basic nature, and that nature is fallen. But I believe that with God's help coupled with our concerted efforts, we are capable of better.